Just wanted to hear your opinion, how do you think this is gonna go, folks living in the UK. Do you think it will happen and UK will leave EU or the majority of people will vote agains it?
Would love to know what is the real situation among people.
IMHO no one has a clue. There's the Exit campaign that tells us if we leave all these bad things will get better and we'll get new good things. The Stay campaign tell us if we leave good things will get worse and we'll also get a load of new bad things. Every argument for or against, has the opposing sides completely contradicting each other. There's no one with an unbiased, balanced opinion saying anything to us. This suggests in reality no one has a clue what will happen if we leave. Which in turn means we voters who are not experts in economics, politics, sociology etc etc have about zero chance of making a balanced, informed choice based on certainty and facts. We're just going to go with our existing ill informed opinions.
People who already want to leave will vote leave and people who already want to stay will vote stay. The 'not sure's' will change their minds a dozen times but on the day will bottle it and vote for what they already know.... being in the EU. And so we'll be staying where we are.
It worked for the referendum on proportional representation, we didn't change. It worked for Scottish independence, the Scots voted not to change and it will work for the EU referendum, we'll not change that either.
Exit for sure..
I agree with Smilo on the outcome.
With all of the scaremongering from the Stay side, those that are on the fence and uniformed will listen to what they see on the BBC and act accordingly. It's too bad that the UK will lose control of its borders...
So you are thinking the outcome will be that UK will stay in? Because the polls are very close so far.
Quote from: main;412694So you are thinking the outcome will be that UK will stay in? Because the polls are very close so far.
Exactly, who knows?
I'm fed up of being ruled from Brussels and, now, bullied by the US of A so I'm leaning towards the 'Leave' camp but will be swayed should a credible, spin-free argument (yeah, right) push my buttons.
Despite the close links we have with Europe I personally think that we in the UK still hang on to our island mentality. I don't feel European and we never really bought into the full EU package deal - no Euros, thanks and can we keep our pounds and ounces for a bit longer?
I also doubt whether we as a nation are quite as ready as others on the continent to fully embrace multiculturalism. We have a proud heritage and perceive that to be under threat by the open-borders clauses present in the EU's club rules.
When all's said and done my decision on how to vote will be based on whether I *think* my kids and their kids will be better off in or out.
It seems that everyone over 60 wants out while the majority of those under want in.
I'm fairly sure that Smilo is correct in that we'll end up staying in as people will be too scared to vote out.
I'd rather we were out on a personal level but as two of my main clients are based in Denmark and Italy I'd probably vote to remain tbh. Small minded? Possibly but hey-ho.
Completely agree with Smilo (good post), I simply don't know the facts as the propaganda is getting in the way of being able to me a informal choice
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Actually growing a backbone and voicing an opinion I'm inclined towards the In vote. Mainly because I can't possibly agree with anything Nigel Farage spews.... I mean says.
Also and more seriously, I took a look at the deals non EU nations that geographically are part of Europe, have made with EU to enable them to trade freely without quotas, restrictions and huge amounts of red tape. Basically that's Norway and Switzerland and Iceland. The closest way to guessing what life would be like without EU membership is to look at them. These countries have a different economy to the UK so I only considered how their relationship worked with the EU not how well they were doing financially etc. Basically it seems that if you want to get free trade with the EU then you have to behave like an EU country. Which means allow EU migrants free access through your borders.
Amazingly Switzerland lets in 11.3 EU migrants per 1000 of its population each year. That compares with 2.5 for the UK. Norway lets in 7.4 EU migrants per 1000 of it's people per year. If we let in as many EU citizens as Switzerland we'd be letting in 400% more than we do at the moment :blink: That surprised me. Switzerland was also required to sign up to the bilateral Free Movement of Persons Agreement. This allows full access to their labour market. The Swiss voted in a referendum to leave the agreement but were warned by the EU that if they did then they'd lose all their EU perks. Norway and Iceland are members of the European Economic Area (EEA) and get free trade with the EU. But to get that perk they have to allow the free movement of EU citizens and give them full access to their labour markets. If they don't the they'll get booted out of the EEA and back come all the trade barriers etc.
Therefore it seems that to be allowed to trade with EU countries you need to behave like an EU country....... except you don't get to vote on anything. So it seems that right now the UK has a better immigration policy that non EU European countries and gets a vote as well. Double bonus :thumbsup:
See......... Farage and the Out campaign go on about how we'll be like Norway and Switzerland if we leave and how much better that will be. :eyebrow:
Now I'll go off and find some fantastic reason why we must stay in the EU bandied about by the 'In Campaign' that also turns out to be a load of tosh.
And still I have no idea.......
I really have no idea.....
Each argument contradict's one another and basically it just confuses me (something which isn't hard to do I admit). The problem is though it confuses me to the point of losing interest in the whole debate, which is not good.
Smilo's first post is actually spot on as to where I am with it all. It's just one word against another. I think it's going to be very close.
I personally am swaying to the 'not leave' vote, mainly because I'm a little bit too worried about the potential impact it could have leaving. It could be something that later on bites us in the bottom..........
Or it might not .....:blink:
I have the view from outside the UK living in NL and I think Brussels is actually concerned about the EU strength should the UK leave.
A while back there was a referendum in NL where the people voted on their view of more countries joining the EU. The vote was 60%+ against. Many of those countries are now members and the Ukraine will soon be. The Dutch are not happy with Europe or their leaders.
I'd be happy to see UK Independent, I couldn't care how it effects me but for sure I would love to see us not funding everyone else regeneration projects whilst squeezing our leas fortunate members of society.
Wife and I were in Berlin at the weekend and I don't know if you know the area near the Berliner Sim card Unter Den Linden. Well there must be 20 huge buildings in construction, Greco-Roman style, insane cost. Very indulgent. Its like the Germans have gone crazy with reconstruction and 70s building are coming down and monument buildings are going up.
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The EU is basically on a land grab for any ex soviet or neighbouring countries, and is also after cheap labour.
And the most ridiculous thing? Who has voted for the top EU dogs to be in power?
The top EU dogs i.e. the ones who vote on creating EU policy and law ,would be the prime ministers and ministers of the member nations. So it's basically us that votes for them when we hold national elections.
MEP's tend to do more Amin stuff like table motions, amendments, points of order and go on fact finding missions to the Maldives whenever they can!
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I'm still reading this but felt it worth adding here.
http://www.connollyassociation.org.uk/eu-referendum/tackling-the-eu-empire/
Ultimately I'm struggling to understand the EU thing. Feels like I'd need years of study to even begin to make an informed choice.
crikey
Yep, and a big one at that.
Been following through my night shift, and the £ was going nuts.
I'll be buying £ to spend on the LAN in a couple of days, before it starts going up again.
Quote from: Penfold;414491crikey
:withstupid: and it looks like this will trigger another referendum in Scotland. If it does then I'm sure the result will be different this time.
Quote from: Whitey;414493:withstupid: and it looks like this will trigger another referendum in Scotland. If it does then I'm sure the result will be different this time.
Yup. I have no doubt there will now be another call for a referendum, and Scotland will break away this time round.
I'm just relieved i bought my Drake Caterpillar when I did.
So off we go into the great unknown. Who said the Brit's were afraid of change.. I still believe nobody has a clue what's going to happen next, Leave or Remain.
Exciting times.
Makes no difference as it's not legally binding anyway. The government will most likely ignore the results anyway... though the results of that one should be interesting...
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/23/eu-referendum-legally-binding-brexit-lisbon-cameron-sovereign-parliament
http://uk.businessinsider.com/green-eu-referendum-not-legally-binding-brexit-2016-6
http://www.theweek.co.uk/eu-referendum/73775/is-the-eu-referendum-result-legally-binding
Quote from: no peanuts;414494Yup. I have no doubt there will now be another call for a referendum, and Scotland will break away this time round.
Yes, I'm sure and that would be a real shame.
I'm just sad the EU were so intractable that they couldn't get off their butts and address not just our concerns but concerns which are mirrored in countries across western Europe.
This was one eye opening programme that probably influenced many. Who is actually accountable in Europe: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=wUwk7rS2ppY
I think Cameron was a real quitter and disappointment for not doing his job. Being elected PM shouldn't come with an exit option.
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http://www.theverge.com/2016/6/24/12022880/google-search-spike-brexit-why-leave-eu (http://www.theverge.com/2016/6/24/12022880/google-search-spike-brexit-why-leave-eu)
I sort of expected as much, but having it confirmed by the great Oracle that is Google Search makes me dispair of some of my fellow citizens. It's a bit bloody late to be asking now people.
The rest of the article is highly opinionated and not something I necessarily agree with. Although there is something to the argument that the question is far too complex for a simple "In or Out" choice made by an electorate that can't seriously be asked to make a call on such a vastly complex subject.
However I would have hoped that voters would have asked the question "what happens if we leave" a long time ago, not after the damned vote!
I was genuinely gutted when I saw the result this morning. Voting to throw away our influence in the biggest trading block on the planet doesn't make sense to me.
A very sad day for Britain :(
At least there is a chance we get Boris as our PM!
I remained undecided throughout the campaign and therefore could not vote. So sitting on the fence it does feel a bit scary, especially as our PM is effectively doing a runner.
However, whether we are the catalyst or not, the chances are we won't be the only ones having a referendum, Holland, Sweden, Italy and Austria might be next, and also heard from others France and Germany (the latter I find hard to believe tbh). The strength of the pound is slowly climbing back up which at least is positive, if not temporary?
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I'm excited :D
Boris Johnson is a self-serving liar and a bully. I suspect a large chunk of the party will not want him to be leader.
Wake up Tut. Don't listen to what the BBC tells you.
And don't talk about the next PM like that.
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Quote from: Ninja_Freak;414506Wake up Tut. Don't listen to what the BBC tells you.
And don't talk about the next PM like that.
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Don't patronise me - I do my own research, and his past behaviour whilst working in journalism is well known and easily checked from multiple sources.
It's Fubar
Politics can be a sensitive subject and it behoves us all to take a deep breath. Every one of entitled to their opinion, so let's keep it respectful please.
Thank you.
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Me thinks Mr. Freak missed a :norty: off of that post
:D
There's actually a petition with 67,000 votes and counting for The London Mayor to claim independence from the UK for London, become a City State and rejoin the EU again. It's a thought.
https://www.change.org/p/sadiq-khan-declare-london-independent-from-the-uk-and-apply-to-join-the-eu
Australia is a wonderful place you know.
Quote from: Tutonic;414507Don't patronise me - I do my own research, and his past behaviour whilst working in journalism is well known and easily checked from multiple sources.
lol.. the article that he wrote about Guppy? The sensationalism he wrote about Brussels? Do you honestly believe that every politician elected to office is pure as the driven snow? What about all the lies spun by the remain campaign? My favourite is the one about the UK being plunged into recession if we exit and the government response would be to raise taxes and stop spending... Take off your rose tinted glasses. There's nothing wrong with being a skilled politician and aiming for the "top job". Is there?
Which bothers you most? The exit, the prospect the Johnson will become PM or that Cameron has realised his failure is now absolute and has run for cover?
I gave you more credit than that.
[video=youtube;iDJWkS2A9T0]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iDJWkS2A9T0[/video]
Disclosure, I have no real strong opinion either way about being in or out of the EU. I was able to make an informed decision about staying in as we have 40 years of history of being in the EU. I don't much care for the EU in it's current form, it's a broken system that at the very least needs a massive overhaul and a total rethink.
I had no idea what being out would be like and to be honest none of the leave campaigners were able to give me a straight answer. I'm a little scared by what the future holds and a bit excited about what opportunities we might make for ourselves. But on the day I erred on the side of caution and voted to stay.... but only just.
What I would be really interested in is to ask anyone who voted leave and who was certain about their position.... what happens now?
What do you think will happen to immigration? Up or down? What happens to the EU citizens who work and own businesses in the UK, whose kids go to school here? What will happen to them?
What about our trading relationship with Europe? What sort of deal will we strike. Will the EU be kind to us in the hope that the EU itself will remain stable or will they butcher us to show other countries that might consider a referendum what the terribly consequences are for anyone who chooses to turn their back on Europe?
Who will it hurt? Who will we trade with now the 50% of our export market is behind trade barriers?
How many of the EU rules that we already have to abide by will we still be willing keep in order to retain access to the EU markets?
Will like Norway and Switzerland, we have to agree to still allow free movement of EU Citizens across our borders?
How will leaving the EU protect us from terrorism as most terrorists acts in the UK attempted and successful were carried out be UK citizens?
It's seems that most economists are saying there will be some short to medium term pain for us now. Some say we'll never recover and become a major world power again. How much pain are you expecting? Will there be another recession for us? Who will it hit? Who will it hurt?
Who will we trade with now the 50% of our export market is behind trade barriers?
How much are we actually now at the mercy of the Central Banks of the world and the major markets? Are we basically at the mercy of their reactions to this rather than in control of our own destiny?
Was the leave vote fuelled by a serious desire to change the way the UK works or was it a xenophobic reaction to us not liking Johnny Foreigner and his meddling in our affairs?
Personally I have no idea at all about any of these. But clearly people who were serious supporters of the leave campaign much have some idea what they were voting for? I genuinely would be interested to hear?
There were lots of issues to consider, but if you want one solid reason I voted to Remain and am seriously concerned about what's happened this is a good one....
My job involves working with, amongst other public & private clients, the intelligence services. Every single analyst I've spoken to, every single one, has said that leaving the EU will significantly compromise our security. These aren't politicians, they have nothing to gain from this. These are front line intelligence analysts who work extremely hard to try and keep us all safe.
In my opinion, it was foolish in the extreme not to listen to them.
I believe if a country is to nurture an innovative trade and service economy it will attract customers naturally through quality for the export of these. So being in the EU does simplify tariffs but if you have nothing for sale that anyone wants to buy you become obsolete. We cannot negotiate trade deals for Britian that are already in place with the EU. Now we can do this for ourselves to benefit our businesses and not general half useful EU blanket agreements. The UK has a good record of workers rights even with the Thatcher years blighting things, we're still fairer and more flexible in equal measures than most countries. That will not change.
We can check our own governments spending and view their decision making live and on the Internet. No European decision is open for the population to witness. It's all done behind closed doors sometimes without MEPs that are elected being involved.
I am not even remotely worried and I have a home in Europe and most of my savings in Euros, but will come back home in a few years.
These are the reasons I voted leave.
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Fair enough Albert - a well reasoned argument.
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Regarding export market barriers. The UK can negotiate with each country and come to an agreement.
Doesn't need the EU to do that as far as I'm aware. Takes some time to sort out, but there shouldn't be anything stopping you..
The EU should not be given credit for commerce that is actually down to the the Internet age. It just so happens that what is making is easier for European companies to trade across border is basically a good product or service and Internet presence with secure payments. We do this with Asia or the US perfectly well without being in their trade zone.
For example, it is possible for an Asian company to sell Asian products (of which the British buy more than any other regions goods), phone variants and computers into Europe without the customer incurring customs tax by the company having warehousing in country. I used http://www.eglobalcentral.eu/ recently to buy my LG V10 phone, a Taiwan variant with minimal bloatware and double the memory of the UK and NL version. â,¬430. These guys are a Hong Kong registered company who have a warehousing agreement in the UK and Holland and they self support repairs via a UK company and honor warranties themselves like UK shops do. My phone was sent from Amsterdam, 3 days delivery, same price as in Asia, no customs tax and better spec than Europe. Good communications, ok like all sites they have some complaints but I was personally contacted every step of the way by a person not an automated email system. The EU didn't enable this. In fact the rate the EU negotiate trade agreements it would take 5 years to get something in place to cover this. Warehouse rules I believe are local to the country so Dutch and British rules enabled this.
Take away the Internet would you mail order German or French goods via a catalog? Doubtful, so technically the ease of doing business isn't really improved by the EU to the largest extent, it's the Internet that achieves this.
Quote from: albert;414527The EU should not be given credit for commerce that is actually down to the the Internet age.
Let me just burst that bubble for you. Nobody pays no VAT whatsoever. It is paid in one way or another. Physical products you buy from the internet has to be shipped from somewhere. As you stated the phone was sent from Amsterdam. Since the UK at the moment is in the EU and this is regarded as the inner market. The VAT you paid for the phone where most likely paid to the Netherlands. Aka no customs and tariffs for you in the UK. This is how the inner market of the EU works in a nutshell. (There are some exceptions like car taxes etc).
Now since you voted to leave you will most likely end up with some sort of EEA agreement like Norway. That means you will have to pay importfees for everything coming in from abroad. Even if you paid VAT in the sender country. All packages sent to Norway with a value above 350 NOK included shipping costs ends up getting a 110 NOK Importfee and 25 % VAT on the value and shipping.
Also the EEA agreement means paying a lot of money to get access to the inner market without restrictions for most goods(amount, not tolls necessary. Agriculture and fishing exempt) without having anything to say about it. We are a defacto EU country with none of the really good bits like access to the inner market for citizens. We have ratified more EU rules than most EU countries. Even Germany.
Norway will pay 391,45 million Euros per year between 2014-2021 just for having access to the EUs markets.Thats 77 euros per citizen per year.
Lets to the math for the UK. 61,1 million peoples aka 77 euros per citizen equals 4,87 billion euros per year to just to have access and not the other goods like being a part of the inner market or actually being able to sit at the table and discuss the use of those funds. The net contribution by the UK is 8.5 billion euros. You can also subtract 1.4 billion euros of that sum in research grants given to private companies in the UK from the EU. So the real figure is 7,4 billion euros.
So lets have a discussion on what those 7,4 billion euros are used for. They make it possible for students across Europe to attend universities. The Erasmus agreement. They go to invest in infrastructure in the poorer developed EU nations to bring them up to speed. etc etc.
The whole idea about the EU is to make every member state just as good. This requires the more wealthy nations to contribute to the poorer to get them up and running. This is not a new thing. Where would we have been after WW2 if not for the US funded Marshall aid?
The whole Leave campaign statistics was deceitful and Rupert Murdochs newspapers flat out lying was painful to watch. Hell. Nigel Farage said that the NHS promise is not valid anymore. So the EU is not perfect, but in my opinion the other option is worse. Europe has prospered with the EU. We will not prosper as a continent if we go back to the isolationist state before WW1.
Quote from: gromit83;414539Let me just burst that bubble for you. Nobody pays no VAT whatsoever. It is paid in one way or another. Physical products you buy from the internet has to be shipped from somewhere. As you stated the phone was sent from Amsterdam. Since the UK at the moment is in the EU and this is regarded as the inner market. The VAT you paid for the phone where most likely paid to the Netherlands. Aka no customs and tariffs for you in the UK. This is how the inner market of the EU works in a nutshell. (There are some exceptions like car taxes etc).
I think you missed my point, of course VAT was paid, someone has to cover that. What I was saying is that it was inclusive in the price, not charged at entry to the country as it would be if shipped from Hong Kong. ;-) I know how VAT works.
If you feel Norway should go all in and increase their bill to 7.4 Billion Euros then start a Join campaign! Certainly will make beer cheaper out there ;-).
I still don't feel this will hurt the UK, after all we get more paying Chinese Students in the UK that Europeans getting cheap education. I think both sides lied and failed to cite a source of their information so many times it was criminal. The rule applies, the remain campaign tried to scare people and that back fired.