Gear Comparison (Spell Hit, Damage & Stats)

[TeaLeaf]

I have been looking into this again recenlty and wondered if anyone could review the logic I have applied to the below.  I'm basically trying to reassess whether or not I should be getting more +stats items at a cost to a reduction in +dam in order to increase my overall damage output.  So the calculation includes trying to estimate the +damage equivalent value of the +1% hit stat against L73 or higher mobs.

My current Hit Rating   89   
Base +hit is 15.8 hit rating per +1% hit chance
Equivalent to a talent adjusted +7.05% chance to hit
Talent Adjusted   12.62   hit rating per 1% chance to hit

Chance to hit against a mob (mob level/base hit %/adjusted hit %)

   Level   Hit    Adj Hit
   70   96%   103.1%
   71   95%   102.1%
   72   94%   101.1%
   73   83%   90.1%
   74   80%   87.1%
   75   73%   80.1%
         
         
Fireball   2674   Ave inc DOT & Crit (from DrDamage addon) and ignores debuffs, mob health and other buffs/debuffs
Cast   3.0 secs   
Latency   0.3 sec   (assumed)
Damage   43781   per minute assuming 90.1% hit rate
1% miss   =  438   lost damage per minute
1% miss    equivalent to 24.07937   plus damage

Ergo for L73+ boss fights I would happily give up that damage for 1% hit      
This ignores the fact that crit chance includes missed spells, hence a 1% hit is actually even better value.  Ignores binary v non-binary spell effects and is just focusing on fireball.

Application:
If the above is correct, then I compared some of my current items with possible replacements, like the Aldor set.

Mage Assumptions:
1 stamina = 10 health points
1 intellect = 15 mana
1 spirit = 0.25 MP5
80 intellect = 1% crit

Exmaple: a quick glance at Spellfire Gloves and Gloves of the Aldor seems to give the advantage to the Spellfire gloves, but using the above and the socketed values, swapping from Spellfire to the Aldor Gloves seems to give me:

Item   Armor   Sta   Int   Spi   Damage   Crit   Hit   Sockets   Bonus   Proc
Spellfire Gloves   111   10   10   0   60   27   0   inc   inc   
Aldor Gloves   111   16   19   16   32   16   15   0   0   

(inc means stats added from sockets to the relevant stat column)
                              
Aldor Benefits   
+0 armor
+60   HP
+135   Mana
+4   MP5 (I have ignored mana refund value of spell crits)
-28   base damage
-0.41%   crit (0.52% - 0.11% from the increased intellect)
+1.19%   hit chance which is equivalent to an additional +28.61 damage
      
Conclusion:
As MP5 gives nothing to a mage in a boss fight (we are hardly ever outside the 5 second rule) then there seems little point using T4 gloves over spellfire unless I really really need the base stats and am happy to sacrifice the lost crit (and mana refunds).  The other T4 items are actually worse in comparison to say Spellfire & Spellstrike, so I was using the best case example to reconfirm my previous decision to remain with crafted items not T4.

Is this math & logic sound?

TL.

[sheepy]

you logic seems good TL
 
consistant damage V taking the change on burst dmg.
 
Overall I think the consistant dmg will pay out.

[Bastet]

MP5 on items works inside combat (or while casting), spirit regeneration only works outside combat (not casting) after a 5 sec wait. 4MP5 will give a mage 4 mana every 5 seconds always, but 4 is like nothing tbh.

[Lucian]

One other factor is survivability.  You don't do dps if you're dead. Period. Which means consistent damage forces you to stay alive, whereas burst damage means you do most damage over a short period of time, but do a lot of it.

[TeaLeaf]

MP5 on items works inside combat (or while casting), spirit regeneration only works outside combat (not casting) after a 5 sec wait. 4MP5 will give a mage 4 mana every 5 seconds always, but 4 is like nothing tbh.

Hence the ref to the 5SR in my post.  I tend to refer to all regen as MP5 though through bad habit.  However when your base spirit is 159 then 4 MP5 is a good amount.  4 mana per tick (which is my incorrectly referred to analysis calculation) is even nicer.

TL.

[Bastet]

Hence the ref to the 5SR in my post. I tend to refer to all regen as MP5 though through bad habit. However when your base spirit is 159 then 4 MP5 is a good amount. 4 mana per tick (which is my incorrectly referred to analysis calculation) is even nicer.
 
TL.

You are correct in stating that spirit based regeneration (the 5 second of non casting before it kicks in) is largely wasted on mages, and to a degree due to mana stones and evo MP5 is also. I wouldnt focus on it anyway, the itemisation doesnt allow for it much, its mostly found on healer cloth.

[TeaLeaf]

It has a HUGE impact on evo, so it is very important as we use it in almost every longer boss fight.  A seemingly small upgrade in spirit can give us massive returns on evo mana.  That's why we carry 'evo sticks' (a staff with loads of spirit enchanted with a spirit enchant and a wand with +spirit).

TL.

[TeaLeaf]

Spellfire/Frostweave are about to get nerfed in the 2.1 patch; the PTR is showing reduced damage on each item with some other minor changes to Int etc.  Looks like I'll have to go get the spreadhseet out again

TL.

[jantore]

Spellfire/Frostweave are about to get nerfed in the 2.1 patch; the PTR is showing reduced damage on each item with some other minor changes to Int etc. Looks like I'll have to go get the spreadhseet out again
 
TL.

 
They removed that nerf from yesterday TL. A blue post is stating that the set will be as it is, and they will be buffing T4 to compeare to the tailoring sets
 
JT

[TeaLeaf]

Yeah, I saw that reversal yesterday, but they are not buffing T4, they are only buffing T5 & T6.  The blue post specifically said that they were not buffing T4 and then gave the reason for it.

TL.

[JanuZ]

Just a quick comment on the latency, it is a little low when you also include that you aren't spamming at perfect timing, I timed 10flash heals from me at 22seconds that is 0.7sec extra per cast even though my latency was only 0.25sec.

So it might put your numbers a little down for the damage per minute/second but doesn't change the effect of that 1%hit has with your current gear.

[Sandrion]

I timed 10flash heals from me at 22seconds that is 0.7sec extra per cast even though my latency was only 0.25sec.

That's weird. If you start casting again as soon as the bar lights up there shouldn't be much latency in between, if any at all :g: . I'll try it on my Mage to see if I can reproduce your findings.

[JanuZ]

well it is factors like that the spell doesn't go off before you release the button not press it in. You can reduce this by pressing it in while casting and release when done casting.

Also your reaction to seeing the spell done casting and then deciding to cast it yourself will loose you more time.

Those things are small time fragments like .1 or .2 but they add up

[Sandrion]

Also your reaction to seeing the spell done casting and then deciding to cast it yourself will loose you more time.

Except you see the bar moving, so you know when it's going to be done. Reaction time is not really a factor.

[JanuZ]

A Race Car driver also sees the lights switch and knows how fast they will switch but the reaction is still important. Same with a 100m runner he knows that it will say ready then a shot will be fired but his reaction has to be timed and they are often reacting to the fact they know the shot will be fired soon not that it has been fired.

Also if you have a cast bar with a countdown timer you will clearly notice the time between where the countdown ends and when the next countdown starts.

Did a second test with 1.5sec cast Flash Heal and was down just under 21sec casting with 0.3sec latency. And with a 2sec cast Holy light  was just over 28seconds with one cast where i was to trigger happy so it would have been 27sec maybe down to 26sec so that is a delay of 0.6 and 0.7seconds per cast