EU referendum - Brexit

[main]

Just wanted to hear your opinion, how do you think this is gonna go, folks living in the UK. Do you think it will happen and UK will leave EU or the majority of people will vote agains it?

Would love to know what is the real situation among people.

[smilodon]

IMHO no one has a clue. There's the Exit campaign that tells us if we leave all these bad things will get better and we'll get new good things. The Stay campaign tell us if we leave good things will get worse and we'll also get a load of new bad things. Every argument for or against, has the opposing sides completely contradicting each other. There's no one with an unbiased, balanced opinion saying anything to us. This suggests in reality no one has a clue what will happen if we leave. Which in turn means we voters who are not experts in economics, politics, sociology etc etc have about zero chance of making a balanced, informed choice based on certainty and facts. We're just going to go with our existing ill informed opinions.

People who already want to leave will vote leave and people who already want to stay will vote stay. The 'not sure's' will change their minds a dozen times but on the day will bottle it and vote for what they already know.... being in the EU. And so we'll be staying where we are.

It worked for the referendum on proportional representation, we didn't change. It worked for Scottish independence, the Scots voted not to change and it will work for the EU referendum, we'll not change that either.

[Gone_Away]

Exit for sure..

I agree with Smilo on the outcome.

With all of the scaremongering from the Stay side, those that are on the fence and uniformed will listen to what they see on the BBC and act accordingly. It's too bad that the UK will lose control of its borders...

[main]

So you are thinking the outcome will be that UK will stay in? Because the polls are very close so far.

[OldBloke]

So you are thinking the outcome will be that UK will stay in? Because the polls are very close so far.

Exactly, who knows?

I'm fed up of being ruled from Brussels and, now, bullied by the US of A so I'm leaning towards the 'Leave' camp but will be swayed should a credible, spin-free argument (yeah, right) push my buttons.  

Despite the close links we have with Europe I personally think that we in the UK still hang on to our island mentality. I don't feel European and we never really bought into the full EU package deal - no Euros, thanks and can we keep our pounds and ounces for a bit longer?

I also doubt whether we as a nation are quite as ready as others on the continent to fully embrace multiculturalism. We have a proud heritage and perceive that to be under threat by the open-borders clauses present in the EU's club rules.

When all's said and done my decision on how to vote will be based on whether I *think* my kids and their kids will be better off in or out.

[Penfold]

It seems that everyone over 60 wants out while the majority of those under want in.

I'm fairly sure that Smilo is correct in that we'll end up staying in as people will be too scared to vote out.

 I'd rather we were out on a personal level but as two of my main clients are based in Denmark and Italy I'd probably vote to remain tbh. Small minded? Possibly but hey-ho.

[Snokio]

Completely agree with Smilo (good post), I simply don't know the facts as the propaganda is getting in the way of being able to me a informal choice

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[smilodon]

Actually growing a backbone and voicing an opinion I'm inclined towards the In vote. Mainly because I can't possibly agree with anything Nigel Farage spews.... I mean says.

Also and more seriously, I took a look at the deals non EU nations that geographically are part of Europe, have made with EU to enable them to trade freely without quotas, restrictions and huge amounts of red tape. Basically that's Norway and Switzerland and Iceland. The closest way to guessing what life would be like without EU membership is to look at them. These countries have a different economy to the UK so I only considered how their relationship worked with the EU not how well they were doing financially etc. Basically it seems that if you want to get free trade with the EU then you have to behave like an EU country. Which means allow EU migrants free access through your borders.

 Amazingly Switzerland lets in 11.3 EU migrants per 1000 of its population each year. That compares with 2.5 for the UK. Norway lets in 7.4 EU migrants per 1000 of it's people per year. If we let in as many EU citizens as Switzerland we'd be letting in 400% more than we do at the moment :blink: That surprised me. Switzerland was also required to sign up to the bilateral Free Movement of Persons Agreement. This allows full access to their labour market. The Swiss voted in a referendum to leave the agreement but were warned by the EU that if they did then they'd lose all their EU perks. Norway and Iceland are members of the European Economic Area (EEA) and get free trade with the EU. But to get that perk they have to allow the free movement of EU citizens and give them full access to their labour markets. If they don't the they'll get booted out of the EEA and back come all the trade barriers etc.  

Therefore it seems that to be allowed to trade with  EU countries you need to behave like an EU country....... except you don't get to vote on anything. So it seems that right now the UK has a better immigration policy that non EU European countries and gets a vote as well. Double bonus  :thumbsup:

See......... Farage and the Out campaign go on about how we'll be like Norway and Switzerland if we leave and how much better that will be. :eyebrow:

Now I'll go off and find some fantastic reason why we must stay in the EU bandied about by the 'In Campaign' that also turns out to be a load of tosh.

And still I have no idea.......

[Sparko]

I really have no idea.....

Each argument contradict's one another and basically it just confuses me (something which isn't hard to do I admit). The problem is though it confuses me to the point of losing interest in the whole debate, which is not good.

Smilo's first post is actually spot on as to where I am with it all. It's just one word against another.  I think it's going to be very close.

I personally am swaying to the 'not leave' vote, mainly because I'm a little bit too worried about the potential impact it could have leaving. It could be something that later on bites us in the bottom..........

Or it might not .....:blink:

[albert]

I have the view from outside the UK living in NL and I think Brussels is actually concerned about the EU strength should the UK leave.

A while back there was a referendum in NL where the people voted on their view of more countries joining the EU. The vote was 60%+ against. Many of those countries are now members and the Ukraine will soon be. The Dutch are not happy with Europe or their leaders.

I'd be happy to see UK Independent, I couldn't care how it effects me but for sure I would love to see us not funding everyone else regeneration projects whilst squeezing our leas fortunate members of society.

Wife and I were in Berlin at the weekend and I don't know if you know the area near the Berliner Sim card Unter Den Linden. Well there must be 20 huge buildings in construction, Greco-Roman style, insane cost. Very indulgent. Its like the Germans have gone crazy with reconstruction and 70s building are coming down and monument buildings are going up.

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[Gorion]

The EU is basically on a land grab for any ex soviet or neighbouring countries, and is also after cheap labour.

And the most ridiculous thing?  Who has voted for the top EU dogs to be in power?

[smilodon]

The top EU dogs i.e. the ones who vote on creating EU policy and law ,would be the prime ministers and ministers of the member nations. So it's basically us that votes for them when we hold national elections.

MEP's tend to do more Amin stuff like table motions, amendments, points of order and go on fact finding missions to the Maldives whenever they can!

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[Jamoe]

I'm still reading this but felt it worth adding here.

http://www.connollyassociation.org.uk/eu-referendum/tackling-the-eu-empire/

Ultimately I'm struggling to understand the EU thing. Feels like I'd need years of study to even begin to make an informed choice.

[Penfold]

crikey

[Gorion]

Yep, and a big one at that.

Been following through my night shift, and the £ was going nuts.

I'll be buying £ to spend on the LAN in a couple of days, before it starts going up again.